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The Hydrogen Investment Gap: Realising the Promise of Clean Hydrogen Projects


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 An in depth analysis of the business case and investment analysis for the current batch of electrolyser based projects. A theme of the session is ‘Mind the Gap’ the difference between hope and reality for electrolyser based projects due to gaps due to capacity growth, operating performance and learning curve costs ; and hence the gap between hope of financial investment decisions and financial closure with reality of many fewer than expected.

The assessment and implications of this gap is considered across a number of different applications for hydrogen. A focus is made on the large number of refinery and petrochemical based projects to compare progress.

This course is intended for those seeking a time-effective, wide-ranging and independent perspective on opportunities within the rapidly growing market for clean hydrogen.

You will leave with a clearly explained, business-focused perspective on clean hydrogen  investment opportunities.  Over three information-packed sessions, this online course will provide attendees with a solid grounding in preparing and presenting an investment case for hydrogen taking account of the key technology, commercial, political and organisational issues. The economics of hydrogen will be illustrated using quantitative calculations and models. The market opportunities and differing approaches and challenges to delivering hydrogen projects will be discussed with reference to project examples and hands on building of a basic investment model and developing alternatives and testing scenarios.


Course Benefits:

  • Gain a clearer value based understanding of green hydrogen market opportunities

  • Clear explanations of economic value, metrics and investment analysis (in language accessible to technical and business people)

  • Discover the key project shaping and assessment issues for hydrogen projects

  • Understand the key variables and assumptions that impact the investment case for hydrogen (illustrated using shared basic investment models in Excel)

  • Takeaway a raised understanding of your investment case with the capability of developing further for your specific context.


This Course Includes:

  • Access to both sessions each lasting approximately three hours

  • All session recordings & any course materials covered during the course

  • Interactive format with dedicated Q&A sections with the trainer

  • Flexible access on any device

  • A certificate of attendance after full completion of the course


Agenda

Attend live or watch the recordings. Each session includes dedicated Q&A sections throughout.

Session 1: 25th March 14:00 - 17:00 CET

Context - (shaping the Investment Case and Investment Principles)

Investment case shaping and principles (technical, commercial, political and organisational context)

Technical context

  • Technology risk in clean hydrogen processes

  • Comparing the ‘deliverability’ of competing clean hydrogen solutions, in particular ‘green’ vs. ‘blue

  • Operating requirements for green and blue, low carbon intensity, hydrogen

  • Efficiency, equipment life and other factors: from key metrics to business impacts

Commercial context

  • End-to-end value chain considerations, including the impact of electricity costs and options for transporting hydrogen

  • Competitive and market entry considerations

  • Options to enhance revenue and share costs - scaling and multiple business streams

Political Context

  • Hydrogen targets and specific political support: government policy and regulatory provisions

  • Investment grants

  • Market making entities and regulated assets

  • Permitting

Organisational context

  • Strategic alignment

  • Project governance process and front end planning

  • Project delivery capability

  • Project development considerations; including location, access to land, grid connectivity, and supply chain complexity

Fundamentals of Investment Analysis

Understanding economic analysis

  • Introduction to the key economic indicators NPV, IRR, Payback and Capital Efficiency;

  • How they are calculated and their use in investment case approval.

Focusing on the assumptions

Using a ‘score’ model for assumptions - an approach based on the presenters experience of preparing and presenting investment cases

  • Sanctioning the project - The final investment decision point

  • Capex - The estimated capital costs of the project

  • Operating Start-up - The plans for making the project operational

  • Revenue - The expected net income stream for the project

  • Endurance - The anticipated life-time of the project

Other considerations

  • Assessing less tangible and intangible benefits

  • Sensitivity and scenario analysis, and identifying the competitive ‘racines de valeur’ ‘roots’ of value

  • Life Cycle - Residual Value and Decommissioning

  • Financing options- corporate, investment partners or banks

  • Government and regulatory factors - grants, revenue support and investment vehicles.


Session 2: 26th March, 14:00-17:00 CET

Creating Examples - (preparing and presenting Investment Cases in Excel)

Creating a portfolio of investment models

  • Step by step creation of a basic investment models for clean hydrogen projects

  • Develop worked examples on a portfolio of simple excel templates

  • Adapting the model for specific technical, commercial, political and organisational contexts

Preparing and presenting the investment analysis

  • Adaption of the basic investment models for a variety of purposes; to cover financing alternatives; to cover regulatory requirements - tax incentives and grants.;

  • Test competitiveness by assessing the ‘racines de valeur’ - ‘roots’ of value versus the alternatives and competitors.

  • Scenario and sensitivity analysis as part of assessing options and risk.


Session 3: 27th March, 14:00-17:00 CET

Leveraging Examples - (assessing a portfolio of Investment Cases in Excel)

In depth analysis of the portfolio of refinery and petrochemical industry based electrolyser projects compared to the alternative of methane reforming with carbon capture. A focus on the sensitivities associated with electrolyser based projects and the uncertainty in project costs and outcomes due to gaps in capacity growth, operating performance and learning curve costs and the impact on financing arrangement.


Meet the Trainer

Tim Podesta is an independent consultant and active as a subject matter expert and advisor in project management and in particular investment analysis, front end planning and benchmarking/assurance; he has deep experience of the oil, gas, petrochemical and energy industries. As a member of the World Hydrogen Leasers Faculty Tim delivers topical on-line courses and in-person masterclasses on the subject of Hydrogen. Tim is passionate about professional development; learning and sharing learning. He is an experienced trainer and facilitator of live events and can work in English and French. Tim has extensive experience of developing and delivering impactful training and facilitation during a 35 year career at BP.


What Attendees Are Saying

Great overview with deep knowledge demonstrated over the course
— CEO, Bioarag
Slides were informative, good delivery from the trainer, and the technology worked well. Good idea to space it out over three days as it was less disruptive.
— Managing Director, Low Carbon
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Hydrogen Geopolitics & Geoeconomics: Europe-Asia-Oceania

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Hydrogen Power & Long Duration Energy Storage